Occam and Sagan

We often face circumstances or phenomena we want to explain, and obtaining a likely explanation can take a lot of time --- something most of us find is demanded by many things wanting our attention. It would be nice to have a way of speedily eliminating unlikely explanations. Philosophers have recognized several rules of thumb for doing that, and they are known as philosophical razors. Such razors shave away unlikely explanations.

Some seem valid. For example, Occam’s razor: the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. The reason is that a simple explanation normally embraces less assumptions than a complex explanation, and the less assumptions there are, the lower the likelihood of error.

One philosophical razor that seems to me to be a fallacy is the Sagan standard: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Accepting the Sagan standard as valid implies accepting that simple claims do not require much evidence. To me, evidence is evidence, and if the evidence points to a conclusion that is common, or if it points to a conclusion that is remarkable, it is what it is. A proposition is either proven, or it is not.  Whether I assert that a cat’s name is Puff, or whether I assert that a man can bend a spoon purely by willing it to happen, both require proof. We accept the one claim more easily than the other because (1) the consequences of assuming the cat is Puff are not significant as assuming telekinesis, and (2) we know people can name their cats Puff, but we don’t know that anyone can bend spoons. Yet consequences are not proof, and I do not think that being unaware of a phenomenon heretofore is reason to dismiss its present instance. The acceptance of it should be determined by its present proof.

Helping Kids Avoid Anxiety

There is an enlightening article in the May number of The Atlantic called Childhood in an Anxious Age. I have been interested in a phenomenon I see among Gen-X and millennials: anxiety. I recommend the article to anyone with an interest in anxiety issues. The article discusses the effective therapies of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Supportive Therapy for Anxious Childhood Emotions (SPACE). What I have learned from the article includes that adult-onset anxiety is rare: if you are anxious as an adult, you likely were anxious as a child. 

I also learned that children who are anxious tend to be those without coping skills, and the reason they are short on coping skills is that they have not been allowed to develop them. Adults in their lives tend to intervene to take over the kids’ problems. 

It is important to allow children to be tested by life and to meet the challenges. They learn to handle problems by being allowed to. Intervening in the natural development of coping skills does a disservice to the child that can severely impair him for a lifetime.